Nitrile Exam Gloves, Large, Powder-Free
PPENon-essential, 90% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-969245
Stock position
- On hand
- 20,008 each13.2 days of supply
- On order
- 1,900 eachfirst arrives Wed Sep 16
- Forecast rate
- 1516.6 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 13,962 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 1,679 eachempirical 90th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 15,642 eachabove
- Stockout
- Tue Sep 29
- Recommended order
- noneby Sat Sep 26
- Inventory value
- $1,701at $0.09 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing6% weekly error, unbiased25% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 6% on average (22% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 8%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 10,286 | 10,506 | +220 | 2% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 10,170 | 10,506 | +336 | 3% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 9,838 | 10,506 | +668 | 7% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 12,182 | 10,506 | -1,676 | 14% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 11,392 | 10,506 | -886 | 8% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 11,446 | 10,506 | -940 | 8% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 9,945 | 10,506 | +561 | 6% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 10,670 | 10,506 | -164 | 2% |
| All 8 weeks | 85,929 | 84,048 | -1,881 | 2% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-969245 | NITRILE EXAM GLOVE LG PF BX/100 | BX of 100 | $0.08 | 13 | $6,920 | AI 0.99 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW0550703 | Nitrile Exam Gloves, Large, Powder-Free - 1000/Cs | CS of 1,000 | $0.08 | 13 | $4,640 | AI 1.00 |