Nitrile Exam Gloves, X-Large, Powder-Free
PPENon-essential, 90% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-208612
Stock position
- On hand
- 7,406 each18.2 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 406.9 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 3,730 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 730 eachempirical 90th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 4,459 eachabove
- Stockout
- Fri Oct 2
- Recommended order
- noneby Tue Sep 29
- Inventory value
- $667at $0.09 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing8% weekly error, under-forecast11% worse than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 8% on average (23% day by day), and it under-forecast by 8% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 8%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 3,249 | 2,704 | -545 | 17% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 3,073 | 2,704 | -369 | 12% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 2,805 | 2,704 | -101 | 4% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 2,635 | 2,704 | +69 | 3% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 2,920 | 2,704 | -216 | 7% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 3,040 | 2,704 | -336 | 11% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 2,892 | 2,704 | -188 | 7% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 2,825 | 2,704 | -121 | 4% |
| All 8 weeks | 23,439 | 21,628 | -1,811 | 8% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-208612 | NITRILE EXAM GLOVE XL PF BX/100 | BX of 100 | $0.08 | 14 | $2,253 | AI 0.99 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW2809112 | Nitrile Exam Gloves, X-Large, Powder-Free - 100/Bx | BX of 100 | $0.08 | 14 | $964 | AI 1.00 |