Procedure Face Mask, Earloop, Level 2
PPEEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-504578
Stock position
- On hand
- 23,205 each17.1 days of supply
- On order
- 900 eachfirst arrives Thu Sep 17
- Forecast rate
- 1359.8 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 12,480 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 2,616 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 15,096 eachabove
- Stockout
- Fri Oct 2
- Recommended order
- noneby Mon Sep 28
- Inventory value
- $2,088at $0.09 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing9% weekly error, under-forecast28% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 9% on average (23% day by day), and it under-forecast by 9% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 12%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 8,685 | 8,713 | +28 | 0% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 8,714 | 8,713 | -1 | 0% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 9,897 | 8,713 | -1,184 | 12% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 10,070 | 8,713 | -1,357 | 13% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 10,235 | 8,713 | -1,522 | 15% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 9,938 | 8,713 | -1,225 | 12% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 9,467 | 8,713 | -754 | 8% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 9,289 | 8,713 | -576 | 6% |
| All 8 weeks | 76,295 | 69,701 | -6,594 | 9% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-504578 | PROC FACE MASK E/L LVL 2 BX/50 | BX of 50 | $0.08 | 13 | $5,987 | AI 0.86 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW6865162 | Procedure Face Mask, Earloop, Level 2 - 500/Cs | CS of 500 | $0.08 | 12 | $2,652 | AI 0.88 |
| Summit Clinical Products | SC-876623 | PROC FACE MASK E/L LVL 2 50BX | BX of 50 | $0.08 | 7 | $1,149 | AI 0.88 |