N95 Respirator, Regular, NIOSH
PPEVital, 99% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-483686
Stock position
- On hand
- 689 each3.6 days of supply
- On order
- 100 eachfirst arrives Fri Sep 18
- Forecast rate
- 192.1 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 1,758 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 636 eachempirical 99th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 2,394 eachbelow: order now
- Stockout
- Fri Sep 18risk: imminent
- Recommended order
- 81 BXby Mon Sep 14
- Inventory value
- $655at $0.95 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing15% weekly error, under-forecast30% worse than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 15% on average (30% day by day), and it under-forecast by 15% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 12%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 1,052 | 965 | -87 | 8% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 1,144 | 965 | -179 | 16% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 1,092 | 965 | -127 | 12% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 1,022 | 965 | -57 | 6% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 1,084 | 965 | -119 | 11% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 948 | 965 | +17 | 2% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 1,038 | 965 | -73 | 7% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 1,656 | 965 | -691 | 42% |
| All 8 weeks | 9,036 | 7,721 | -1,315 | 15% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-483686 | N95 RESP REG NIOSH BX/20 | BX of 20 | $0.81 | 13 | $11,305 | AI 0.88 |