Isolation Gown, AAMI Level 2, Universal

PPEEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-821641

Stock position

On hand: 5,363 each17.9 days of supply
On order: 160 eachfirst arrives Wed Sep 16
Forecast rate: 299.8 each/daynext 30 days
Demand over 9 days: 2,759 eachlead time plus review period
Safety stock: 676 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point: 3,435 eachabove
Stockout: Sat Oct 3
Recommended order: noneby Tue Sep 29
Inventory value: $4,559at $0.85 per each

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing12% weekly error, under-forecast19% worse than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 12% on average (22% day by day), and it under-forecast by 6% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 10%.

Report card, week by week

Week of	Used	Forecast	Error	Error %
Tue Jul 21	2,218	2,055	-163	7%
Tue Jul 28	2,765	2,055	-710	26%
Tue Aug 4	1,819	2,055	+236	13%
Tue Aug 11	2,281	2,055	-226	10%
Tue Aug 18	2,338	2,055	-283	12%
Tue Aug 25	2,310	2,055	-255	11%
Tue Sep 1	1,763	2,055	+292	17%
Tue Sep 8	2,070	2,055	-15	1%
All 8 weeks	17,564	16,442	-1,122	6%

Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.

Demand forecast

last 180 days and the next 30

actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day

The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.

Projected on hand

Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

Vendor	Part number	Vendor description	Sells by	Paid per each	Invoices	90-day spend	Pairing
Meridian Medical Supply	MMS-821641	ISO GOWN AAMI LVL 2 UNIV PK/10	PK of 10	$0.80	13	$15,860	AI 0.88
Northwind Health Distribution	NW1878508	Isolation Gown, AAMI Level 2, Universal - 100/Cs	CS of 100	$0.78	14	$7,209	AI 0.88

13 of 13 invoices in the last 90 days were above the contract price. Those lines averaged $8.00 per PK vs $7.55 contracted: 6% more, $888 overpaid in 90 days, about $3,603 a year at that rate.