Face Shield, Disposable, Full Length
PPENon-essential, 90% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-065283
Stock position
- On hand
- 581 each11.1 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 52.2 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 476 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 9 eachempirical 90th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 484 eachabove
- Stockout
- Fri Sep 25
- Recommended order
- noneby Wed Sep 23
- Inventory value
- $407at $0.70 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing9% weekly error, over-forecast8% worse than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 9% on average (24% day by day), and it over-forecast by 7% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 8%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 315 | 377 | +62 | 20% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 328 | 377 | +49 | 15% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 380 | 377 | -3 | 1% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 368 | 377 | +9 | 2% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 357 | 377 | +20 | 6% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 295 | 377 | +82 | 28% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 382 | 377 | -5 | 1% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 386 | 377 | -9 | 2% |
| All 8 weeks | 2,811 | 3,019 | +208 | 7% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-065283 | FACE SHLD DISP FULL LNTH BX/25 | BX of 25 | $0.63 | 14 | $2,250 | AI 0.88 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW3704547 | Face Shield, Disposable, Full Length - 25/Bx | BX of 25 | $0.64 | 14 | $994 | AI 0.88 |