IV Catheter, Safety, 20G x 1.16 in
IV TherapyVital, 99% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-776690
Stock position
- On hand
- 1,525 each11.7 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 130.7 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 1,201 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 158 eachempirical 99th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 1,359 eachabove
- Stockout
- Sat Sep 26
- Recommended order
- noneby Wed Sep 23
- Inventory value
- $2,211at $1.45 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing12% weekly error, over-forecast13% worse than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 12% on average (24% day by day), and it over-forecast by 7% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 10%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 762 | 911 | +149 | 20% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 798 | 911 | +113 | 14% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 790 | 911 | +121 | 15% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 826 | 911 | +85 | 10% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 907 | 911 | +4 | 0% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 1,077 | 911 | -166 | 15% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 830 | 911 | +81 | 10% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 836 | 911 | +75 | 9% |
| All 8 weeks | 6,826 | 7,288 | +462 | 7% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-776690 | IV CATH SFTY 20GX1.16 BX/50 | BX of 50 | $1.22 | 14 | $11,139 | AI 0.85 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW7980604 | IV Catheter, Safety, 20G x 1.16 in - 200/Cs | CS of 200 | $1.30 | 13 | $4,666 | AI 1.00 |