IV Catheter, Safety, 24G x 0.75 in
IV TherapyEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-599687
Stock position
- On hand
- 451 each10.1 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 44.8 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 412 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 83 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 495 eachbelow: order now
- Stockout
- Thu Sep 24
- Recommended order
- 1 BXby Mon Sep 21
- Inventory value
- $677at $1.50 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing14% weekly error, over-forecast19% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 14% on average (25% day by day), and it over-forecast by 4% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 17%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 229 | 311 | +82 | 36% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 305 | 311 | +6 | 2% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 248 | 311 | +63 | 25% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 276 | 311 | +35 | 13% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 330 | 311 | -19 | 6% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 338 | 311 | -27 | 8% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 382 | 311 | -71 | 19% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 280 | 311 | +31 | 11% |
| All 8 weeks | 2,388 | 2,490 | +102 | 4% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-599687 | IV CATH SFTY 24GX0.75 BX/50 | BX of 50 | $1.44 | 13 | $4,100 | AI 0.85 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW7903596 | IV Catheter, Safety, 24G x 0.75 in - 50/Bx | BX of 50 | $1.46 | 13 | $1,819 | AI 1.00 |