IV Administration Set, 20 drop, 92 in

IV TherapyVital, 99% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-083708

Stock position

On hand: 1,919 each17.8 days of supply
On order: 0 eachnothing open
Forecast rate: 107.6 each/daynext 30 days
Demand over 9 days: 993 eachlead time plus review period
Safety stock: 125 eachempirical 99th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point: 1,118 eachabove
Stockout: Fri Oct 2
Recommended order: noneby Tue Sep 29
Inventory value: $6,141at $3.20 per each

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing7% weekly error, unbiased47% better than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 7% on average (20% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 13%.

Report card, week by week

Week of	Used	Forecast	Error	Error %
Tue Jul 21	720	746	+26	4%
Tue Jul 28	740	746	+6	1%
Tue Aug 4	869	746	-123	14%
Tue Aug 11	699	746	+47	7%
Tue Aug 18	728	746	+18	2%
Tue Aug 25	742	746	+4	1%
Tue Sep 1	582	746	+164	28%
Tue Sep 8	720	746	+26	4%
All 8 weeks	5,800	5,969	+169	3%

Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.

Demand forecast

last 180 days and the next 30

actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day

The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.

Projected on hand

Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

Vendor	Part number	Vendor description	Sells by	Paid per each	Invoices	90-day spend	Pairing
Meridian Medical Supply	MMS-083708	IV ADMIN SET 20 DROP 92 CS/50	CS of 50	$2.79	14	$16,863	AI 0.78
Northwind Health Distribution	NW1088173	IV Administration Set, 20 drop, 92 in - 50/Cs	CS of 50	$3.81	14	$18,458	AI 0.88

Northwind Health Distribution charges $3.8058 per each for this item; Meridian Medical Supply charges $2.7873. That is 37% more on about 19,669 each a year, or $20,033 a year. No contract is on file for this Northwind Health Distribution line.