IV Extension Set, 7 in, Needleless
IV TherapyEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-572964
Stock position
- On hand
- 3,414 each21.5 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 158.6 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 1,458 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 252 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 1,710 eachabove
- Stockout
- Tue Oct 6
- Recommended order
- noneby Sat Oct 3
- Inventory value
- $3,755at $1.10 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing13% weekly error, over-forecast15% worse than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 13% on average (27% day by day), and it over-forecast by 6% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 12%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 987 | 1,059 | +72 | 7% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 907 | 1,067 | +160 | 18% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 1,006 | 1,075 | +69 | 7% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 1,319 | 1,083 | -236 | 18% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 1,073 | 1,091 | +18 | 2% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 1,150 | 1,099 | -51 | 4% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 871 | 1,108 | +237 | 27% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 867 | 1,116 | +249 | 29% |
| All 8 weeks | 8,180 | 8,698 | +518 | 6% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-572964 | IV EXT SET 7 NDLS CS/100 | CS of 100 | $1.01 | 14 | $10,273 | AI 0.85 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW4904651 | IV Extension Set, 7 in, Needleless - 100/Cs | CS of 100 | $1.05 | 13 | $4,426 | AI 0.88 |