Needleless Connector, Neutral Displacement
IV TherapyEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-130988
Stock position
- On hand
- 4,601 each22.3 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 206.5 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 1,896 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 155 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 2,052 eachabove
- Stockout
- Wed Oct 7
- Recommended order
- noneby Sun Oct 4
- Inventory value
- $7,362at $1.60 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing9% weekly error, unbiased0% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 9% on average (21% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 9%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 1,252 | 1,432 | +180 | 14% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 1,538 | 1,432 | -106 | 7% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 1,538 | 1,432 | -106 | 7% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 1,286 | 1,432 | +146 | 11% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 1,665 | 1,432 | -233 | 14% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 1,432 | 1,432 | 0 | 0% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 1,289 | 1,432 | +143 | 11% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 1,506 | 1,432 | -74 | 5% |
| All 8 weeks | 11,506 | 11,456 | -50 | 0% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-130988 | NDLS CONN NEUT DISPL BX/100 | BX of 100 | $1.49 | 14 | $21,400 | AI 0.88 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW3139629 | Needleless Connector, Neutral Displacement - 100/Bx | BX of 100 | $1.48 | 15 | $9,457 | AI 0.88 |