Transparent IV Site Dressing, 2.375 x 2.75 in
IV TherapyEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-053470
Stock position
- On hand
- 2,006 each11 days of supply
- On order
- 300 eachfirst arrives Mon Sep 14
- Forecast rate
- 181.7 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 1,661 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 0 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 1,661 eachabove
- Stockout
- Fri Sep 25
- Recommended order
- noneby Wed Sep 23
- Inventory value
- $1,304at $0.65 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing11% weekly error, over-forecast24% worse than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 11% on average (31% day by day), and it over-forecast by 10% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 9%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 1,219 | 1,273 | +54 | 4% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 981 | 1,273 | +292 | 30% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 1,301 | 1,273 | -28 | 2% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 1,194 | 1,273 | +79 | 7% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 1,149 | 1,273 | +124 | 11% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 1,139 | 1,273 | +134 | 12% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 1,068 | 1,273 | +205 | 19% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 1,189 | 1,273 | +84 | 7% |
| All 8 weeks | 9,240 | 10,181 | +941 | 10% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-053470 | TRANSP IV SITE DRSG 2.375X2.75 BX/100 | BX of 100 | $0.61 | 12 | $6,622 | reviewed 0.90 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW9217281 | Transparent IV Site Dressing, 2.375 x 2.75 in - 100/Bx | BX of 100 | $0.64 | 13 | $2,987 | AI 0.88 |