Tourniquet, Disposable, Latex-Free
IV TherapyNon-essential, 90% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-591497
Stock position
- On hand
- 3,662 each20.8 days of supply
- On order
- 250 eachfirst arrives Wed Sep 16
- Forecast rate
- 176.0 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 1,616 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 223 eachempirical 90th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 1,839 eachabove
- Stockout
- Wed Oct 7
- Recommended order
- noneby Sun Oct 4
- Inventory value
- $439at $0.12 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing11% weekly error, unbiased13% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 11% on average (24% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 12%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 1,168 | 1,234 | +66 | 6% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 1,439 | 1,234 | -205 | 14% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 1,406 | 1,234 | -172 | 12% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 1,247 | 1,234 | -13 | 1% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 971 | 1,234 | +263 | 27% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 1,063 | 1,234 | +171 | 16% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 1,129 | 1,234 | +105 | 9% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 1,260 | 1,234 | -26 | 2% |
| All 8 weeks | 9,683 | 9,873 | +190 | 2% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-591497 | TOURN DISP LF BX/250 | BX of 250 | $0.11 | 13 | $1,565 | AI 0.88 |
| Summit Clinical Products | SC-726991 | TOURN DISP LF 250BX | BX of 250 | $0.11 | 6 | $171 | AI 0.88 |