IV Start Kit with Chlorhexidine
Stock position
- On hand
- 1,876 each19.5 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 96.0 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 882 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 118 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 999 eachabove
- Stockout
- Sun Oct 4
- Recommended order
- noneby Thu Oct 1
- Inventory value
- $4,502at $2.40 per each
How the forecast was made
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 7% on average (25% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 7%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 615 | 667 | +52 | 8% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 699 | 667 | -32 | 5% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 638 | 667 | +29 | 5% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 736 | 667 | -69 | 9% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 611 | 667 | +56 | 9% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 727 | 667 | -60 | 8% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 614 | 667 | +53 | 9% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 700 | 667 | -33 | 5% |
| All 8 weeks | 5,340 | 5,332 | -8 | 0% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-002002 | IV START KIT CHG CS/50 | CS of 50 | $2.14 | 15 | $16,730 | AI 0.84 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW6192371 | IV Start Kit with Chlorhexidine - 50/Cs | CS of 50 | $2.32 | 13 | $6,045 | AI 0.88 |
Northwind Health Distribution charges $2.3249 per each for this item; Meridian Medical Supply charges $2.1448. That is 8% more on about 10,544 each a year, or $1,899 a year.