Alcohol Prep Pad, Medium, Sterile
IV TherapyNon-essential, 90% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-344743
Stock position
- On hand
- 58,706 each23.6 days of supply
- On order
- 2,000 eachfirst arrives Tue Sep 15
- Forecast rate
- 2485.3 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 22,866 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 4,926 eachempirical 90th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 27,793 eachabove
- Stockout
- Fri Oct 9
- Recommended order
- noneby Mon Oct 5
- Inventory value
- $1,174at $0.02 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing12% weekly error, under-forecast16% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 12% on average (24% day by day), and it under-forecast by 3% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 14%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 14,569 | 17,186 | +2,617 | 18% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 17,341 | 17,186 | -155 | 1% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 15,095 | 17,186 | +2,091 | 14% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 15,937 | 17,186 | +1,249 | 8% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 22,584 | 17,186 | -5,398 | 24% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 18,921 | 17,186 | -1,735 | 9% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 17,486 | 17,186 | -300 | 2% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 20,214 | 17,186 | -3,028 | 15% |
| All 8 weeks | 142,147 | 137,491 | -4,656 | 3% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-344743 | ALC PREP PAD MED STRL BX/200 | BX of 200 | $0.02 | 13 | $2,671 | AI 1.00 |
| Summit Clinical Products | SC-381629 | ALC PREP PAD MED STRL 4000CS | CS of 4,000 | $0.02 | 6 | $1,789 | AI 1.00 |