Alcohol Prep Pad, Medium, Sterile
IV TherapyNon-essential, 90% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-344743
Stock position
- On hand
- 58,706 each23.6 days of supply
- On order
- 2,000 eachfirst arrives Tue Sep 15
- Forecast rate
- 2485.3 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 22,866 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 4,926 eachempirical 90th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 27,793 eachabove
- Stockout
- Fri Oct 9
- Recommended order
- noneby Mon Oct 5
- Inventory value
- $1,174at $0.02 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing12% weekly error, under-forecast16% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 12% on average (24% day by day), and it under-forecast by 3% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 14%.
actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-344743 | ALC PREP PAD MED STRL BX/200 | BX of 200 | $0.02 | 13 | $2,671 | stand-in |
| Summit Clinical Products | SC-381629 | ALC PREP PAD MED STRL 4000CS | CS of 4,000 | $0.02 | 6 | $1,789 | stand-in |