SupplyIQCascade Ridge Medical Center
Today

Alcohol Prep Pad, Medium, Sterile

IV TherapyNon-essential, 90% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-344743

Stock position

On hand
58,706 each23.6 days of supply
On order
2,000 eachfirst arrives Tue Sep 15
Forecast rate
2485.3 each/daynext 30 days
Demand over 9 days
22,866 eachlead time plus review period
Safety stock
4,926 eachempirical 90th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point
27,793 eachabove
Stockout
Fri Oct 9
Recommended order
noneby Mon Oct 5
Inventory value
$1,174at $0.02 per each

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing12% weekly error, under-forecast16% better than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 12% on average (24% day by day), and it under-forecast by 3% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 14%.

02,7455,491todayreport card windowThu Mar 19Wed Oct 14
actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
0safety stock 4,926runs out Fri Oct 9tomorrowWed Oct 14
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

VendorPart numberVendor descriptionSells byPaid per eachInvoices90-day spendPairing
Meridian Medical SupplyMMS-344743ALC PREP PAD MED STRL BX/200BX of 200$0.0213$2,671stand-in
Summit Clinical ProductsSC-381629ALC PREP PAD MED STRL 4000CSCS of 4,000$0.026$1,789stand-in