Chlorhexidine Gluconate Applicator, 3 mL

IV TherapyEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-094709

Stock position

On hand: 5,214 each88.3 days of supply
On order: 50 eachfirst arrives Mon Sep 14
Forecast rate: 59.1 each/daynext 30 days
Demand over 9 days: 538 eachlead time plus review period
Safety stock: 86 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point: 625 eachabove
Stockout: Sun Dec 13
Recommended order: noneby Wed Dec 9
Inventory value: $10,949at $2.10 per each

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing9% weekly error, under-forecast0% better than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 9% on average (24% day by day), and it under-forecast by 4% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 9%.

Report card, week by week

Week of	Used	Forecast	Error	Error %
Tue Jul 21	402	410	+8	2%
Tue Jul 28	402	410	+8	2%
Tue Aug 4	362	410	+48	13%
Tue Aug 11	377	410	+33	9%
Tue Aug 18	494	410	-84	17%
Tue Aug 25	437	410	-27	6%
Tue Sep 1	433	410	-23	5%
Tue Sep 8	492	410	-82	17%
All 8 weeks	3,399	3,281	-118	3%

Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.

Demand forecast

last 180 days and the next 30

actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day

The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.

Projected on hand

Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Lots and expiry

Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.

Lot	Quantity	Expires	Days	Unit cost	Projected waste
L00001	4,000	Thu Oct 29	45	$2.10	1,347 each · $2,828
L00002	1,214	Sat Jul 31	320	$2.10	0 each · $0

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

Vendor	Part number	Vendor description	Sells by	Paid per each	Invoices	90-day spend	Pairing
Meridian Medical Supply	MMS-094709	CHG GLUC APPL 3 ML BX/25	BX of 25	$1.89	13	$6,723	AI 0.86
Northwind Health Distribution	NW6668138	Chlorhexidine Gluconate Applicator, 3 mL - 25/Bx	BX of 25	$1.96	13	$2,935	AI 1.00
Summit Clinical Products	SC-755905	CHG GLUC APPL 3 ML 25BX	BX of 25	$1.98	6	$1,042	AI 0.86