Syringe, 1 mL, Luer Lock
Injection & SharpsEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-918992
Stock position
- On hand
- 4,019 each10.7 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 374.0 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 3,429 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 830 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 4,259 eachbelow: order now
- Stockout
- Fri Sep 25
- Recommended order
- 3 BXby Mon Sep 21
- Inventory value
- $563at $0.14 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing8% weekly error, under-forecast41% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 8% on average (23% day by day), and it under-forecast by 6% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 13%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 2,762 | 2,585 | -177 | 6% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 3,347 | 2,585 | -762 | 23% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 2,941 | 2,585 | -356 | 12% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 2,726 | 2,585 | -141 | 5% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 2,620 | 2,585 | -35 | 1% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 2,459 | 2,585 | +126 | 5% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 2,457 | 2,585 | +128 | 5% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 2,586 | 2,585 | -1 | 0% |
| All 8 weeks | 21,898 | 20,681 | -1,217 | 6% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-918992 | SYR 1 ML LUER LK BX/100 | BX of 100 | $0.13 | 14 | $3,512 | AI 1.00 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW2490607 | Syringe, 1 mL, Luer Lock - 100/Bx | BX of 100 | $0.13 | 13 | $1,350 | AI 1.00 |