Syringe, 3 mL, Luer Lock
Injection & SharpsEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-448929
Stock position
- On hand
- 10,136 each18.2 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 556.6 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 5,127 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 852 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 5,979 eachabove
- Stockout
- Fri Oct 2
- Recommended order
- noneby Tue Sep 29
- Inventory value
- $1,318at $0.13 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing11% weekly error, under-forecast7% worse than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 11% on average (24% day by day), and it under-forecast by 5% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 10%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 4,272 | 3,770 | -502 | 12% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 3,101 | 3,770 | +669 | 22% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 4,347 | 3,770 | -577 | 13% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 4,670 | 3,770 | -900 | 19% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 4,083 | 3,770 | -313 | 8% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 4,029 | 3,770 | -259 | 6% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 3,680 | 3,770 | +90 | 2% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 3,656 | 3,770 | +114 | 3% |
| All 8 weeks | 31,838 | 30,160 | -1,678 | 5% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-448929 | SYR 3 ML LUER LK BX/100 | BX of 100 | $0.12 | 15 | $7,161 | AI 1.00 |