Syringe, 10 mL, Luer Lock
Injection & SharpsEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-536610
Stock position
- On hand
- 3,325 each10.5 days of supply
- On order
- 100 eachfirst arrives Wed Sep 16
- Forecast rate
- 316.0 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 2,905 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 444 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 3,350 eachabove
- Stockout
- Fri Sep 25
- Recommended order
- noneby Tue Sep 22
- Inventory value
- $599at $0.18 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing8% weekly error, under-forecast11% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 8% on average (19% day by day), and it under-forecast by 4% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 8%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 1,963 | 2,167 | +204 | 10% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 2,342 | 2,159 | -183 | 8% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 2,263 | 2,150 | -113 | 5% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 2,264 | 2,142 | -122 | 5% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 2,175 | 2,133 | -42 | 2% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 2,009 | 2,125 | +116 | 6% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 2,536 | 2,116 | -420 | 17% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 2,234 | 2,108 | -126 | 6% |
| All 8 weeks | 17,786 | 17,099 | -687 | 4% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-536610 | SYR 10 ML LUER LK BX/100 | BX of 100 | $0.16 | 14 | $3,161 | AI 1.00 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW5637508 | Syringe, 10 mL, Luer Lock - 100/Bx | BX of 100 | $0.17 | 14 | $1,519 | AI 1.00 |
| Summit Clinical Products | SC-055484 | SYR 10 ML LUER LK 100BX | BX of 100 | $0.17 | 7 | $617 | AI 1.00 |