Syringe, 20 mL, Luer Lock
Injection & SharpsEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-972217
Stock position
- On hand
- 1,404 each17.3 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 81.2 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 745 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 128 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 872 eachabove
- Stockout
- Fri Oct 2
- Recommended order
- noneby Mon Sep 28
- Inventory value
- $393at $0.28 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing12% weekly error, under-forecast22% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 12% on average (27% day by day), and it under-forecast by 5% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 15%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 678 | 535 | -143 | 21% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 535 | 534 | -1 | 0% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 573 | 533 | -40 | 7% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 569 | 532 | -37 | 7% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 575 | 531 | -44 | 8% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 372 | 530 | +158 | 42% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 525 | 528 | +3 | 1% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 622 | 527 | -95 | 15% |
| All 8 weeks | 4,449 | 4,249 | -200 | 5% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-972217 | SYR 20 ML LUER LK BX/50 | BX of 50 | $0.24 | 13 | $1,222 | AI 1.00 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW3427461 | Syringe, 20 mL, Luer Lock - 50/Bx | BX of 50 | $0.24 | 14 | $583 | AI 1.00 |