Syringe, 60 mL, Luer Lock
Injection & SharpsEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-755391
Stock position
- On hand
- 969 each22.7 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 42.7 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 391 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 94 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 485 eachabove
- Stockout
- Wed Oct 7
- Recommended order
- noneby Sat Oct 3
- Inventory value
- $533at $0.55 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing13% weekly error, under-forecast43% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 13% on average (24% day by day), and it under-forecast by 7% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 23%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 251 | 289 | +38 | 15% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 368 | 289 | -79 | 21% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 298 | 289 | -9 | 3% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 322 | 289 | -33 | 10% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 351 | 289 | -62 | 18% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 280 | 289 | +9 | 3% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 260 | 289 | +29 | 11% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 348 | 289 | -59 | 17% |
| All 8 weeks | 2,478 | 2,311 | -167 | 7% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-755391 | SYR 60 ML LUER LK BX/40 | BX of 40 | $0.50 | 14 | $1,540 | AI 1.00 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW6863706 | Syringe, 60 mL, Luer Lock - 40/Bx | BX of 40 | $0.50 | 13 | $596 | AI 1.00 |