Hypodermic Needle, 21G x 1 in, Safety
Injection & SharpsEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-493074
Stock position
- On hand
- 3,250 each15.9 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 204.8 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 1,881 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 271 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 2,152 eachabove
- Stockout
- Wed Sep 30
- Recommended order
- noneby Sun Sep 27
- Inventory value
- $228at $0.07 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing7% weekly error, under-forecast1% worse than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 7% on average (24% day by day), and it under-forecast by 4% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 7%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 1,274 | 1,416 | +142 | 11% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 1,625 | 1,416 | -209 | 13% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 1,433 | 1,416 | -17 | 1% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 1,398 | 1,416 | +18 | 1% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 1,462 | 1,416 | -46 | 3% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 1,602 | 1,416 | -186 | 12% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 1,505 | 1,416 | -89 | 6% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 1,548 | 1,416 | -132 | 9% |
| All 8 weeks | 11,847 | 11,325 | -522 | 4% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-493074 | HYPO NDL 21GX1 SFTY BX/100 | BX of 100 | $0.06 | 14 | $1,159 | AI 0.91 |
| Summit Clinical Products | SC-876670 | HYPO NDL 21G 1 SFTY 100BX | BX of 100 | $0.06 | 7 | $136 | AI 0.96 |