Hypodermic Needle, 25G x 1 in, Safety
Injection & SharpsEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-462865
Stock position
- On hand
- 8,261 each23.4 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 353.0 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 3,248 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 390 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 3,637 eachabove
- Stockout
- Thu Oct 8
- Recommended order
- noneby Mon Oct 5
- Inventory value
- $578at $0.07 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing11% weekly error, under-forecast32% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 11% on average (24% day by day), and it under-forecast by 4% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 16%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 2,799 | 2,403 | -396 | 14% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 2,517 | 2,403 | -114 | 5% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 2,185 | 2,403 | +218 | 10% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 2,297 | 2,403 | +106 | 5% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 2,757 | 2,403 | -354 | 13% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 2,039 | 2,403 | +364 | 18% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 2,819 | 2,403 | -416 | 15% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 2,619 | 2,403 | -216 | 8% |
| All 8 weeks | 20,032 | 19,227 | -805 | 4% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-462865 | HYPO NDL 25GX1 SFTY BX/100 | BX of 100 | $0.06 | 14 | $1,606 | AI 0.91 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW4133941 | Hypodermic Needle, 25G x 1 in, Safety - 100/Bx | BX of 100 | $0.06 | 14 | $655 | AI 1.00 |