Blood Collection Needle, Safety, 21G
Injection & SharpsEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-649769
Stock position
- On hand
- 4,535 each23.1 days of supply
- On order
- 400 eachfirst arrives Tue Sep 15
- Forecast rate
- 195.9 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 1,791 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 429 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 2,221 eachabove
- Stockout
- Fri Oct 9
- Recommended order
- noneby Mon Oct 5
- Inventory value
- $1,451at $0.32 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing12% weekly error, unbiased3% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 12% on average (28% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 13%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 1,080 | 1,337 | +257 | 24% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 1,372 | 1,337 | -35 | 3% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 1,109 | 1,337 | +228 | 21% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 1,272 | 1,337 | +65 | 5% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 1,687 | 1,337 | -350 | 21% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 1,511 | 1,337 | -174 | 12% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 1,495 | 1,337 | -158 | 11% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 1,427 | 1,337 | -90 | 6% |
| All 8 weeks | 10,953 | 10,693 | -260 | 2% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-649769 | BLD COLL NDL SFTY 21G BX/50 | BX of 50 | $0.29 | 12 | $5,135 | AI 1.00 |