Sharps Container, 5 qt, Red
Injection & SharpsNon-essential, 90% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-014931
Stock position
- On hand
- 254 each18.3 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 13.9 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 128 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 12 eachempirical 90th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 140 eachabove
- Stockout
- Sat Oct 3
- Recommended order
- noneby Wed Sep 30
- Inventory value
- $1,168at $4.60 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing10% weekly error, over-forecast6% worse than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 10% on average (27% day by day), and it over-forecast by 4% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 9%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 84 | 96 | +12 | 14% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 89 | 96 | +7 | 8% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 83 | 96 | +13 | 16% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 104 | 96 | -8 | 8% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 91 | 96 | +5 | 5% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 84 | 96 | +12 | 14% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 108 | 96 | -12 | 11% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 101 | 96 | -5 | 5% |
| All 8 weeks | 744 | 771 | +27 | 4% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-014931 | SHARPS CONT 5 QT RED CS/20 | CS of 20 | $4.27 | 13 | $4,016 | AI 1.00 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW7247929 | Sharps Container, 5 qt, Red - 20/Cs | CS of 20 | $4.43 | 13 | $1,682 | AI 1.00 |