Insulin Syringe, 0.5 mL, 31G
Injection & SharpsEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-370192
Stock position
- On hand
- 1,783 each11.4 days of supply
- On order
- 100 eachfirst arrives Wed Sep 16
- Forecast rate
- 155.9 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 1,423 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 233 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 1,656 eachabove
- Stockout
- Sat Sep 26
- Recommended order
- noneby Wed Sep 23
- Inventory value
- $285at $0.16 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing9% weekly error, unbiased30% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 9% on average (26% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 13%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 1,055 | 1,109 | +54 | 5% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 1,092 | 1,109 | +17 | 2% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 895 | 1,109 | +214 | 24% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 1,204 | 1,109 | -95 | 8% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 1,102 | 1,109 | +7 | 1% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 1,272 | 1,109 | -163 | 13% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 942 | 1,109 | +167 | 18% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 1,157 | 1,109 | -48 | 4% |
| All 8 weeks | 8,719 | 8,870 | +151 | 2% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-370192 | INS SYR 0.5 ML 31G BX/100 | BX of 100 | $0.15 | 14 | $1,804 | AI 1.00 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW0725464 | Insulin Syringe, 0.5 mL, 31G - 100/Bx | BX of 100 | $0.15 | 14 | $700 | AI 1.00 |