Blood Culture Bottle Set, Aerobic/Anaerobic
Stock position
- On hand
- 484 pair11 days of supply
- On order
- 0 pairnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 43.9 pair/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 404 pairlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 63 pairempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 467 pairabove
- Stockout
- Fri Sep 25
- Recommended order
- noneby Tue Sep 22
- Inventory value
- $2,517at $5.20 per pair
How the forecast was made
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 10% on average (27% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 12%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 390 | 304 | -86 | 22% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 322 | 304 | -18 | 6% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 307 | 304 | -3 | 1% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 297 | 304 | +7 | 2% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 327 | 304 | -23 | 7% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 287 | 304 | +17 | 6% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 233 | 304 | +71 | 30% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 340 | 304 | -36 | 11% |
| All 8 weeks | 2,503 | 2,431 | -72 | 3% |
Weekly totals in pair. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Lots and expiry
Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.
| Lot | Quantity | Expires | Days | Unit cost | Projected waste |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L00009 | 484 | Fri Apr 23 | 221 | $5.20 | 0 pair · $0 |
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per pair | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-449208 | BLD CULT BTL SET AER/ANAER CS/50 | CS of 50 | $4.69 | 13 | $12,436 | AI 0.73 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW4549791 | Blood Culture Bottle Set, Aerobic/Anaerobic - 50/Cs | CS of 50 | $5.01 | 13 | $5,257 | AI 0.88 |
| Summit Clinical Products | SC-076894 | BLD CULT BTL SET AER/ANAER 50CS | CS of 50 | $5.02 | 7 | $2,508 | AI 0.73 |