Nasopharyngeal Swab with Viral Transport Media
Lab & SpecimenEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-789951
Stock position
- On hand
- 392 each4.4 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 88.9 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 803 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 207 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 1,010 eachbelow: order now
- Stockout
- Sat Sep 19risk: imminent
- Recommended order
- 13 BXby Mon Sep 14
- Inventory value
- $745at $1.90 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing12% weekly error, under-forecast16% worse than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 12% on average (26% day by day), and it under-forecast by 11% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 10%.
actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Lots and expiry
Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.
| Lot | Quantity | Expires | Days | Unit cost | Projected waste |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L00010 | 392 | Wed Mar 17 | 184 | $1.90 | 0 each · $0 |
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-789951 | NP SWAB VIRAL TRNSPT MEDIA BX/50 | BX of 50 | $1.90 | 13 | $9,775 | stand-in |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW8836374 | Nasopharyngeal Swab with Viral Transport Media - 50/Bx | BX of 50 | $1.71 | 13 | $3,844 | stand-in |
Meridian Medical Supply charges $1.8980 per each for this item; Northwind Health Distribution charges $1.7084. That is 11% more on about 20,886 each a year, or $3,961 a year. No contract is on file for this Meridian Medical Supply line.