Rapid Influenza A/B + COVID-19 Antigen Test Kit
Lab & SpecimenEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-391694
Stock position
- On hand
- 3,619 each108.2 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 33.5 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 307 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 99 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 405 eachabove
- Stockout
- not projected
- Recommended order
- none
- Inventory value
- $34,381at $9.50 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing22% weekly error, under-forecast16% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 22% on average (34% day by day), and it under-forecast by 22% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 26%.
actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Lots and expiry
Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.
| Lot | Quantity | Expires | Days | Unit cost | Projected waste |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L00011 | 3,000 | Fri Nov 13 | 60 | $9.50 | 1,000 each · $9,500 |
| L00012 | 289 | Sat Mar 6 | 173 | $9.50 | 0 each · $0 |
| L00013 | 330 | Mon Mar 22 | 189 | $9.50 | 0 each · $0 |
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-391694 | RAPID FLU A/B + COVID-19 AG TEST KIT BX/25 | BX of 25 | $8.42 | 13 | $14,096 | stand-in |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW9523934 | Rapid Influenza A/B + COVID-19 Antigen Test Kit - 25/Bx | BX of 25 | $8.38 | 13 | $6,285 | stand-in |
| Summit Clinical Products | SC-211479 | RPD FLU A/B + COVID-19 AG TEST KIT 25BX | BX of 25 | $8.72 | 6 | $2,180 | stand-in |