Rapid Influenza A/B + COVID-19 Antigen Test Kit
Stock position
- On hand
- 3,619 each108.2 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 33.5 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 307 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 99 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 405 eachabove
- Stockout
- not projected
- Recommended order
- none
- Inventory value
- $34,381at $9.50 per each
How the forecast was made
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 22% on average (34% day by day), and it under-forecast by 22% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 26%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 205 | 170 | -35 | 17% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 206 | 170 | -36 | 17% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 246 | 170 | -76 | 31% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 180 | 170 | -10 | 6% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 215 | 170 | -45 | 21% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 249 | 170 | -79 | 32% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 171 | 170 | -1 | 1% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 262 | 170 | -92 | 35% |
| All 8 weeks | 1,734 | 1,358 | -376 | 22% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Lots and expiry
Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.
| Lot | Quantity | Expires | Days | Unit cost | Projected waste |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L00011 | 3,000 | Fri Nov 13 | 60 | $9.50 | 1,000 each · $9,500 |
| L00012 | 289 | Sat Mar 6 | 173 | $9.50 | 0 each · $0 |
| L00013 | 330 | Mon Mar 22 | 189 | $9.50 | 0 each · $0 |
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-391694 | RAPID FLU A/B + COVID-19 AG TEST KIT BX/25 | BX of 25 | $8.42 | 13 | $14,096 | AI 0.78 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW9523934 | Rapid Influenza A/B + COVID-19 Antigen Test Kit - 25/Bx | BX of 25 | $8.38 | 13 | $6,285 | AI 0.88 |
| Summit Clinical Products | SC-211479 | RPD FLU A/B + COVID-19 AG TEST KIT 25BX | BX of 25 | $8.72 | 6 | $2,180 | AI 0.78 |