Blood Glucose Test Strip, Point-of-Care

Lab & SpecimenEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-848325

Stock position

On hand: 10,761 each17.9 days of supply
On order: 0 eachnothing open
Forecast rate: 599.7 each/daynext 30 days
Demand over 9 days: 5,504 eachlead time plus review period
Safety stock: 1,168 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point: 6,672 eachabove
Stockout: Fri Oct 2
Recommended order: noneby Mon Sep 28
Inventory value: $4,842at $0.45 per each

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing9% weekly error, under-forecast10% better than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 9% on average (30% day by day), and it under-forecast by 5% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 10%.

Report card, week by week

Week of	Used	Forecast	Error	Error %
Tue Jul 21	3,603	4,147	+544	15%
Tue Jul 28	4,097	4,147	+50	1%
Tue Aug 4	4,060	4,147	+87	2%
Tue Aug 11	4,809	4,147	-662	14%
Tue Aug 18	4,889	4,147	-742	15%
Tue Aug 25	4,281	4,147	-134	3%
Tue Sep 1	4,206	4,147	-59	1%
Tue Sep 8	5,015	4,147	-868	17%
All 8 weeks	34,960	33,176	-1,784	5%

Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.

Demand forecast

last 180 days and the next 30

actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day

The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.

Projected on hand

Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Lots and expiry

Earliest-expiry-first simulation against the forecast. Waste is what remains in a lot on its expiry date.

Lot	Quantity	Expires	Days	Unit cost	Projected waste
L00014	6,270	Fri May 7	235	$0.45	0 each · $0
L00015	4,491	Sat Oct 2	383	$0.45	0 each · $0

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

Vendor	Part number	Vendor description	Sells by	Paid per each	Invoices	90-day spend	Pairing
Meridian Medical Supply	MMS-848325	BLD GLUC TEST STRIP POC BX/50	BX of 50	$0.41	16	$27,592	AI 0.86