Safety Lancet, 28G
Lab & SpecimenNon-essential, 90% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-998032
Stock position
- On hand
- 8,122 each12.6 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 645.1 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 5,887 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 353 eachempirical 90th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 6,240 eachabove
- Stockout
- Sun Sep 27
- Recommended order
- noneby Fri Sep 25
- Inventory value
- $650at $0.08 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing7% weekly error, over-forecast26% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 7% on average (22% day by day), and it over-forecast by 4% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 10%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 4,287 | 4,580 | +293 | 7% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 3,780 | 4,580 | +800 | 21% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 4,708 | 4,580 | -128 | 3% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 4,803 | 4,580 | -223 | 5% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 4,627 | 4,580 | -47 | 1% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 3,727 | 4,580 | +853 | 23% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 4,689 | 4,580 | -109 | 2% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 4,480 | 4,580 | +100 | 2% |
| All 8 weeks | 35,101 | 36,640 | +1,539 | 4% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-998032 | SFTY LANCET 28G BX/200 | BX of 200 | $0.08 | 14 | $3,592 | AI 1.00 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW0511258 | Safety Lancet, 28G - 200/Bx | BX of 200 | $0.07 | 12 | $1,376 | AI 1.00 |