Abdominal (ABD) Pad, 8 x 10 in, Sterile
Wound CareNon-essential, 90% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-991911
Stock position
- On hand
- 14,534 each161.5 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 90.0 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 823 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 193 eachempirical 90th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 1,016 eachabove
- Stockout
- not projected
- Recommended order
- none
- Inventory value
- $4,360at $0.30 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing12% weekly error, unbiased0% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 12% on average (24% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 12%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 571 | 625 | +54 | 9% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 669 | 625 | -44 | 7% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 783 | 625 | -158 | 20% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 741 | 625 | -116 | 16% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 652 | 625 | -27 | 4% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 529 | 625 | +96 | 18% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 547 | 625 | +78 | 14% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 595 | 625 | +30 | 5% |
| All 8 weeks | 5,087 | 5,003 | -84 | 2% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-991911 | ABD (ABD) PAD 8X10 STRL BX/18 | BX of 18 | $0.25 | 14 | $1,643 | reviewed 0.90 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW1281995 | Abdominal (ABD) Pad, 8 x 10 in, Sterile - 288/Cs | CS of 288 | $0.27 | 11 | $845 | AI 0.88 |