Foam Dressing, 4 x 4 in, Silicone Adhesive
Wound CareEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-600681
Stock position
- On hand
- 414 each10.9 days of supply
- On order
- 60 eachfirst arrives Tue Sep 15
- Forecast rate
- 37.8 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 347 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 59 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 406 eachabove
- Stockout
- Sun Sep 27
- Recommended order
- noneby Wed Sep 23
- Inventory value
- $1,573at $3.80 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing6% weekly error, unbiased25% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 6% on average (25% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 8%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 247 | 265 | +18 | 7% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 293 | 265 | -28 | 10% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 284 | 265 | -19 | 7% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 267 | 265 | -2 | 1% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 258 | 265 | +7 | 3% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 252 | 265 | +13 | 5% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 228 | 265 | +37 | 16% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 273 | 265 | -8 | 3% |
| All 8 weeks | 2,102 | 2,123 | +21 | 1% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-600681 | FOAM DRSG 4X4 SIL ADHESIVE BX/10 | BX of 10 | $3.29 | 13 | $11,229 | AI 0.66 |