Silicone Border Dressing, 6 x 6 in
Wound CareEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-865519
Stock position
- On hand
- 546 each21.6 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 25.3 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 231 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 53 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 284 eachabove
- Stockout
- Tue Oct 6
- Recommended order
- noneby Fri Oct 2
- Inventory value
- $3,931at $7.20 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing8% weekly error, under-forecast13% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 8% on average (26% day by day), and it under-forecast by 7% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 9%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 178 | 174 | -4 | 2% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 207 | 174 | -33 | 16% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 179 | 174 | -5 | 3% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 212 | 174 | -38 | 18% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 186 | 174 | -12 | 6% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 184 | 174 | -10 | 5% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 170 | 174 | +4 | 2% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 192 | 174 | -18 | 9% |
| All 8 weeks | 1,508 | 1,396 | -112 | 7% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-865519 | SIL BRDR DRSG 6X6 BX/5 | BX of 5 | $6.32 | 14 | $17,372 | AI 0.64 |