Transparent Film Dressing, 6 x 8 in
Wound CareNon-essential, 90% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-391450
Stock position
- On hand
- 1,410 each23.3 days of supply
- On order
- 50 eachfirst arrives Thu Sep 17
- Forecast rate
- 60.5 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 551 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 84 eachempirical 90th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 634 eachabove
- Stockout
- Thu Oct 8
- Recommended order
- noneby Mon Oct 5
- Inventory value
- $1,692at $1.20 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing9% weekly error, under-forecast77% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 9% on average (25% day by day), and it under-forecast by 9% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 38%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 485 | 409 | -76 | 16% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 459 | 409 | -50 | 11% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 436 | 409 | -27 | 6% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 432 | 409 | -23 | 5% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 443 | 409 | -34 | 8% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 469 | 409 | -60 | 13% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 460 | 409 | -51 | 11% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 412 | 409 | -3 | 1% |
| All 8 weeks | 3,596 | 3,272 | -324 | 9% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-391450 | TRANSP FILM DRSG 6X8 BX/50 | BX of 50 | $1.14 | 13 | $4,222 | AI 0.64 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW9121662 | Transparent Film Dressing, 6 x 8 in - 50/Bx | BX of 50 | $1.14 | 14 | $1,945 | AI 0.88 |
| Summit Clinical Products | SC-897088 | TRANSP FILM DRSG 6 8 50BX | BX of 50 | $1.19 | 7 | $777 | AI 0.84 |