Silicone Tape, 1 in x 5.5 yd
Wound CareNon-essential, 90% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-932013
Stock position
- On hand
- 360 roll11.7 days of supply
- On order
- 24 rollfirst arrives Tue Sep 15
- Forecast rate
- 30.8 roll/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 281 rolllead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 38 rollempirical 90th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 319 rollabove
- Stockout
- Sun Sep 27
- Recommended order
- noneby Wed Sep 23
- Inventory value
- $1,116at $3.10 per roll
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing10% weekly error, unbiased0% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 10% on average (25% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 10%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 220 | 214 | -6 | 3% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 194 | 214 | +20 | 10% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 251 | 214 | -37 | 15% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 235 | 214 | -21 | 9% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 239 | 214 | -25 | 10% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 202 | 214 | +12 | 6% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 172 | 214 | +42 | 24% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 205 | 214 | +9 | 4% |
| All 8 weeks | 1,718 | 1,713 | -5 | 0% |
Weekly totals in roll. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowroll/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, roll: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per roll | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-932013 | SIL TAPE 1X5.5 YD BX/12 | BX of 12 | $2.72 | 13 | $7,449 | reviewed 0.90 |
| Summit Clinical Products | SC-611445 | SIL TAPE 1 5.5 YD 12BX | BX of 12 | $2.83 | 7 | $883 | AI 0.83 |