Paper Tape, 1 in x 10 yd
Wound CareNon-essential, 90% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-765643
Stock position
- On hand
- 1,462 roll20.6 days of supply
- On order
- 24 rollfirst arrives Tue Sep 15
- Forecast rate
- 70.8 roll/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 653 rolllead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 52 rollempirical 90th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 705 rollabove
- Stockout
- Tue Oct 6
- Recommended order
- noneby Sat Oct 3
- Inventory value
- $804at $0.55 per roll
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing9% weekly error, over-forecast60% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 9% on average (24% day by day), and it over-forecast by 8% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 23%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 534 | 515 | -19 | 4% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 378 | 518 | +140 | 37% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 511 | 521 | +10 | 2% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 438 | 525 | +87 | 20% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 534 | 528 | -6 | 1% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 535 | 532 | -3 | 1% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 541 | 535 | -6 | 1% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 446 | 538 | +92 | 21% |
| All 8 weeks | 3,917 | 4,212 | +295 | 8% |
Weekly totals in roll. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowroll/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, roll: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per roll | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-765643 | PAPER TAPE 1X10 YD BX/12 | BX of 12 | $0.49 | 12 | $2,190 | reviewed 0.90 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW0934469 | Paper Tape, 1 in x 10 yd - 12/Bx | BX of 12 | $0.52 | 13 | $1,057 | AI 0.88 |