Saline Wound Wash, 100 mL Spray
Wound CareNon-essential, 90% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-741439
Stock position
- On hand
- 452 bottle11.7 days of supply
- On order
- 0 bottlenothing open
- Forecast rate
- 38.6 bottle/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 354 bottlelead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 60 bottleempirical 90th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 414 bottleabove
- Stockout
- Sat Sep 26
- Recommended order
- noneby Tue Sep 22
- Inventory value
- $814at $1.80 per bottle
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing11% weekly error, unbiased3% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 11% on average (29% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 12%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 258 | 260 | +2 | 1% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 320 | 264 | -56 | 18% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 258 | 267 | +9 | 3% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 292 | 268 | -24 | 8% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 296 | 269 | -27 | 9% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 246 | 270 | +24 | 10% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 201 | 270 | +69 | 34% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 308 | 270 | -38 | 12% |
| All 8 weeks | 2,179 | 2,138 | -41 | 2% |
Weekly totals in bottle. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowbottle/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, bottle: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per bottle | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-741439 | NS WND WASH 100 ML SPRAY CS/12 | CS of 12 | $1.61 | 13 | $5,945 | AI 0.78 |