Negative Pressure Wound Therapy Dressing Kit, Medium
Wound CareEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Apex Surgical Direct, lead 21 days, ordered every 30 daysAX8283-689
Stock position
- On hand
- 177 each46.1 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 3.8 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 51 days
- 195 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 37 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 232 eachbelow: order now
- Stockout
- Sat Oct 31risk: uncovered
- Recommended order
- 11 CSby Wed Sep 30
- Inventory value
- $8,156at $46.08 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing23% weekly error, under-forecast13% worse than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 23% on average (57% day by day), and it under-forecast by 10% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 20%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 28 | 26 | -2 | 7% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 29 | 26 | -3 | 10% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 30 | 26 | -4 | 13% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 32 | 26 | -6 | 19% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 18 | 26 | +8 | 44% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 40 | 26 | -14 | 35% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 39 | 26 | -13 | 33% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 20 | 26 | +6 | 30% |
| All 8 weeks | 236 | 212 | -24 | 10% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apex Surgical Direct | AX8283-689 | Negative Pressure Wound Therapy Dressing Kit, Medium - 5/Cs | CS of 5 | $39.43 | 3 | $16,756 | AI 1.00 |