Suture, Silk Ties, 2-0, 12 x 30 in
SurgicalEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Apex Surgical Direct, lead 21 days, ordered every 30 daysAX6272-526
Stock position
- On hand
- 696 each54.8 days of supply
- On order
- 108 eachfirst arrives Sat Sep 19
- Forecast rate
- 12.7 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 51 days
- 641 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 95 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 736 eachabove
- Stockout
- Wed Nov 18
- Recommended order
- noneby Tue Oct 20
- Inventory value
- $2,339at $3.36 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing13% weekly error, under-forecast17% worse than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 13% on average (30% day by day), and it under-forecast by 10% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 11%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 86 | 86 | -0 | 0% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 75 | 86 | +11 | 15% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 104 | 86 | -18 | 17% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 101 | 86 | -15 | 15% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 93 | 86 | -7 | 8% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 108 | 86 | -22 | 20% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 95 | 86 | -9 | 9% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 97 | 86 | -11 | 11% |
| All 8 weeks | 759 | 686 | -73 | 10% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apex Surgical Direct | AX6272-526 | Suture, Silk Ties, 2-0, 12 x 30 in - 12/Bx | BX of 12 | $3.03 | 3 | $3,053 | AI 0.88 |
| Summit Clinical Products | SC-461771 | SUT SILK TIES 2-0 12 30 12BX | BX of 12 | $3.56 | 6 | $811 | AI 0.84 |