Skin Stapler, 35 Wide, Disposable
SurgicalEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-222987
Stock position
- On hand
- 95 each11.9 days of supply
- On order
- 6 eachfirst arrives Mon Sep 14
- Forecast rate
- 8.0 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 76 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 6 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 83 eachabove
- Stockout
- Fri Sep 25
- Recommended order
- noneby Wed Sep 23
- Inventory value
- $1,093at $11.50 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing12% weekly error, unbiased16% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 12% on average (32% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 14%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 66 | 55 | -11 | 17% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 49 | 55 | +6 | 12% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 45 | 55 | +10 | 22% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 50 | 55 | +5 | 10% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 59 | 55 | -4 | 7% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 58 | 55 | -3 | 5% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 45 | 55 | +10 | 22% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 57 | 55 | -2 | 4% |
| All 8 weeks | 429 | 437 | +8 | 2% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-222987 | SKIN STAPLER 35 W DISP BX/6 | BX of 6 | $9.75 | 13 | $5,087 | AI 0.79 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW0980767 | Skin Stapler, 35 Wide, Disposable - 6/Bx | BX of 6 | $10.25 | 14 | $2,460 | AI 0.88 |