Surgical Gown, Sterile, Reinforced, Large
SurgicalEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-642364
Stock position
- On hand
- 472 each9.6 days of supply
- On order
- 30 eachfirst arrives Wed Sep 16
- Forecast rate
- 49.0 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 468 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 14 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 481 eachabove
- Stockout
- Thu Sep 24
- Recommended order
- noneby Tue Sep 22
- Inventory value
- $3,021at $6.40 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing7% weekly error, over-forecast12% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 7% on average (24% day by day), and it over-forecast by 5% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 8%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 333 | 335 | +2 | 1% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 344 | 335 | -9 | 3% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 352 | 335 | -17 | 5% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 251 | 335 | +84 | 33% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 321 | 335 | +14 | 4% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 292 | 335 | +43 | 15% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 321 | 335 | +14 | 4% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 338 | 335 | -3 | 1% |
| All 8 weeks | 2,552 | 2,679 | +127 | 5% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-642364 | SURG GOWN STRL REINF LG CS/30 | CS of 30 | $6.02 | 14 | $25,471 | AI 0.87 |
| Summit Clinical Products | SC-171359 | SURG GOWN STRL REINF LG 30CS | CS of 30 | $6.24 | 7 | $2,994 | AI 0.87 |