Surgical Gloves, Sterile, Latex-Free, 7.0
SurgicalEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-227927
Stock position
- On hand
- 1,382 pair16.2 days of supply
- On order
- 0 pairnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 85.2 pair/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 806 pairlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 171 pairempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 977 pairabove
- Stockout
- Wed Sep 30
- Recommended order
- noneby Sun Sep 27
- Inventory value
- $1,589at $1.15 per pair
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing15% weekly error, unbiased8% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 15% on average (25% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 16%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 674 | 584 | -90 | 13% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 650 | 584 | -66 | 10% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 547 | 584 | +37 | 7% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 523 | 584 | +61 | 12% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 633 | 584 | -49 | 8% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 696 | 584 | -112 | 16% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 394 | 584 | +190 | 48% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 506 | 584 | +78 | 15% |
| All 8 weeks | 4,623 | 4,674 | +51 | 1% |
Weekly totals in pair. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windowpair/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, pair: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per pair | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-227927 | SURG GLOVE STRL LF 7.0 BX/50 | BX of 50 | $1.01 | 13 | $4,934 | reviewed 0.95 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW3382277 | Surgical Gloves, Sterile, Latex-Free, 7.0 - 200/Cs | CS of 200 | $1.05 | 11 | $2,306 | AI 0.88 |
| Summit Clinical Products | SC-360347 | SURG GLOVE STRL LF 7.0 50BX | BX of 50 | $1.03 | 7 | $931 | AI 0.87 |