Laparotomy Drape Pack, Sterile
SurgicalEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Apex Surgical Direct, lead 21 days, ordered every 30 daysAX6407-052
Stock position
- On hand
- 391 each55.2 days of supply
- On order
- 24 eachfirst arrives Mon Oct 5
- Forecast rate
- 7.1 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 51 days
- 358 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 44 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 402 eachabove
- Stockout
- Fri Nov 13
- Recommended order
- noneby Fri Oct 16
- Inventory value
- $10,510at $26.88 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing9% weekly error, under-forecast38% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 9% on average (30% day by day), and it under-forecast by 5% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 14%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 43 | 48 | +5 | 12% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 50 | 48 | -2 | 4% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 46 | 48 | +2 | 4% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 50 | 48 | -2 | 4% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 53 | 48 | -5 | 9% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 55 | 48 | -7 | 13% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 58 | 48 | -10 | 17% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 52 | 48 | -4 | 8% |
| All 8 weeks | 407 | 387 | -20 | 5% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apex Surgical Direct | AX6407-052 | Laparotomy Drape Pack, Sterile - 8/Cs | CS of 8 | $24.22 | 3 | $16,855 | AI 0.88 |