Electrosurgical Pencil, Hand-Switch, Disposable
SurgicalEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-405032
Stock position
- On hand
- 239 each17.7 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 13.5 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 129 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 20 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 149 eachabove
- Stockout
- Fri Oct 2
- Recommended order
- noneby Mon Sep 28
- Inventory value
- $1,004at $4.20 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing10% weekly error, unbiased54% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 10% on average (29% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 22%.
actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-405032 | ESU PNCL HS DISP BX/50 | BX of 50 | $3.93 | 15 | $4,122 | stand-in |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW2624393 | Electrosurgical Pencil, Hand-Switch, Disposable - 50/Bx | BX of 50 | $4.04 | 8 | $1,616 | stand-in |