SupplyIQCascade Ridge Medical Center
Today

Electrosurgical Pencil, Hand-Switch, Disposable

SurgicalEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-405032

Stock position

On hand
239 each17.7 days of supply
On order
0 eachnothing open
Forecast rate
13.5 each/daynext 30 days
Demand over 9 days
129 eachlead time plus review period
Safety stock
20 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
Reorder point
149 eachabove
Stockout
Fri Oct 2
Recommended order
noneby Mon Sep 28
Inventory value
$1,004at $4.20 per each

How the forecast was made

Exponential smoothing10% weekly error, unbiased54% better than naive

A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.

Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 10% on average (29% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 22%.

02040todayreport card windowThu Mar 19Wed Oct 14
actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
0safety stock 20runs out Fri Oct 2tomorrowWed Oct 7
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.

Vendors and prices, last 90 days

VendorPart numberVendor descriptionSells byPaid per eachInvoices90-day spendPairing
Meridian Medical SupplyMMS-405032ESU PNCL HS DISP BX/50BX of 50$3.9315$4,122stand-in
Northwind Health DistributionNW2624393Electrosurgical Pencil, Hand-Switch, Disposable - 50/BxBX of 50$4.048$1,616stand-in