Electrosurgical Pencil, Hand-Switch, Disposable
SurgicalEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-405032
Stock position
- On hand
- 239 each17.7 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 13.5 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 129 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 20 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 149 eachabove
- Stockout
- Fri Oct 2
- Recommended order
- noneby Mon Sep 28
- Inventory value
- $1,004at $4.20 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing10% weekly error, unbiased54% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 10% on average (29% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 22%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 81 | 94 | +13 | 16% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 107 | 94 | -13 | 12% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 89 | 94 | +5 | 6% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 95 | 94 | -1 | 1% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 101 | 94 | -7 | 7% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 105 | 94 | -11 | 10% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 76 | 94 | +18 | 24% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 87 | 94 | +7 | 8% |
| All 8 weeks | 741 | 754 | +13 | 2% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-405032 | ESU PNCL HS DISP BX/50 | BX of 50 | $3.93 | 15 | $4,122 | reviewed 0.90 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW2624393 | Electrosurgical Pencil, Hand-Switch, Disposable - 50/Bx | BX of 50 | $4.04 | 8 | $1,616 | AI 0.88 |