Yankauer Suction Tip, Bulb, Sterile
SurgicalNon-essential, 90% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-067237
Stock position
- On hand
- 1,143 each17.1 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 66.8 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 613 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 79 eachempirical 90th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 692 eachabove
- Stockout
- Thu Oct 1
- Recommended order
- noneby Mon Sep 28
- Inventory value
- $857at $0.75 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing10% weekly error, unbiased0% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 10% on average (25% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 10%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 440 | 464 | +24 | 5% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 409 | 464 | +55 | 13% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 472 | 464 | -8 | 2% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 393 | 464 | +71 | 18% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 507 | 464 | -43 | 8% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 531 | 464 | -67 | 13% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 428 | 464 | +36 | 8% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 513 | 464 | -49 | 10% |
| All 8 weeks | 3,693 | 3,711 | +18 | 0% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-067237 | YANK SUCT TIP BULB STRL CS/50 | CS of 50 | $0.67 | 13 | $3,249 | AI 0.88 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW8218983 | Yankauer Suction Tip, Bulb, Sterile - 50/Cs | CS of 50 | $0.69 | 14 | $1,455 | AI 0.88 |