Laparoscopic Trocar, Bladeless, 12 mm
SurgicalEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Apex Surgical Direct, lead 21 days, ordered every 30 daysAX9274-995
Stock position
- On hand
- 468 each135.1 days of supply
- On order
- 42 eachfirst arrives Mon Sep 21
- Forecast rate
- 3.5 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 51 days
- 175 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 4 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 179 eachabove
- Stockout
- not projected
- Recommended order
- none
- Inventory value
- $26,058at $55.68 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing24% weekly error, unbiased8% worse than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 24% on average (55% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 22%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 21 | 24 | +3 | 14% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 35 | 24 | -11 | 31% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 20 | 24 | +4 | 20% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 22 | 24 | +2 | 9% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 18 | 24 | +6 | 33% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 14 | 24 | +10 | 71% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 28 | 24 | -4 | 14% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 29 | 24 | -5 | 17% |
| All 8 weeks | 187 | 189 | +2 | 1% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apex Surgical Direct | AX9274-995 | Laparoscopic Trocar, Bladeless, 12 mm - 6/Bx | BX of 6 | $51.74 | 3 | $17,386 | AI 0.88 |