Nasal Cannula, Adult, 7 ft Tubing
RespiratoryEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-446468
Stock position
- On hand
- 2,208 each17.4 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 126.6 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 1,161 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 97 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 1,258 eachabove
- Stockout
- Fri Oct 2
- Recommended order
- noneby Tue Sep 29
- Inventory value
- $1,214at $0.55 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing9% weekly error, unbiased6% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 9% on average (21% day by day), and it showed no systematic bias. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 9%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 973 | 898 | -75 | 8% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 967 | 898 | -69 | 7% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 833 | 898 | +65 | 8% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 863 | 898 | +35 | 4% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 768 | 898 | +130 | 17% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 849 | 898 | +49 | 6% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 800 | 898 | +98 | 12% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 996 | 898 | -98 | 10% |
| All 8 weeks | 7,049 | 7,181 | +132 | 2% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-446468 | NASAL CANN ADLT 7 FT TUBING CS/50 | CS of 50 | $0.49 | 14 | $4,457 | AI 0.88 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW7065331 | Nasal Cannula, Adult, 7 ft Tubing - 50/Cs | CS of 50 | $0.50 | 13 | $1,864 | AI 0.88 |