Non-Rebreather Mask, Adult, with Reservoir
RespiratoryEssential, 95% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-791965
Stock position
- On hand
- 875 each23 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 38.0 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 350 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 50 eachempirical 95th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 400 eachabove
- Stockout
- Wed Oct 7
- Recommended order
- noneby Sun Oct 4
- Inventory value
- $1,138at $1.30 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing7% weekly error, under-forecast9% worse than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 7% on average (24% day by day), and it under-forecast by 5% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 7%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 252 | 246 | -6 | 2% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 245 | 246 | +1 | 0% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 262 | 246 | -16 | 6% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 274 | 246 | -28 | 10% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 240 | 246 | +6 | 3% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 283 | 246 | -37 | 13% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 234 | 246 | +12 | 5% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 288 | 246 | -42 | 15% |
| All 8 weeks | 2,078 | 1,970 | -108 | 5% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-791965 | NRB MASK ADLT RESV CS/50 | CS of 50 | $1.26 | 13 | $2,833 | reviewed 0.90 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW7962492 | Non-Rebreather Mask, Adult, with Reservoir - 50/Cs | CS of 50 | $1.23 | 14 | $1,294 | AI 0.88 |
| Summit Clinical Products | SC-884166 | NRB MASK ADLT RESV 50CS | CS of 50 | $1.27 | 7 | $509 | reviewed 0.90 |