Endotracheal Tube, Cuffed, 7.5 mm
RespiratoryVital, 99% service targetPrimary vendor Meridian Medical Supply, lead 1.5 days, ordered every 7 daysMMS-959443
Stock position
- On hand
- 101 each11.1 days of supply
- On order
- 0 eachnothing open
- Forecast rate
- 9.1 each/daynext 30 days
- Demand over 9 days
- 83 eachlead time plus review period
- Safety stock
- 42 eachempirical 99th percentile of forecast error
- Reorder point
- 125 eachbelow: order now
- Stockout
- Fri Sep 25
- Recommended order
- 3 BXby Sat Sep 19
- Inventory value
- $283at $2.80 per each
How the forecast was made
Exponential smoothing12% weekly error, under-forecast27% better than naive
A weighted recent average that learns the weekday pattern and any trend. Recent days count more than old ones.
Report card: the model was fit on history up to Tue Jul 21 and scored on the 56 days after. Weekly totals were off by 12% on average (33% day by day), and it under-forecast by 7% overall. A same-weekday-last-week guess would have been off by 17%.
Report card, week by week
| Week of | Used | Forecast | Error | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jul 21 | 59 | 60 | +1 | 2% |
| Tue Jul 28 | 61 | 60 | -1 | 2% |
| Tue Aug 4 | 83 | 60 | -23 | 28% |
| Tue Aug 11 | 79 | 60 | -19 | 24% |
| Tue Aug 18 | 48 | 60 | +12 | 25% |
| Tue Aug 25 | 64 | 60 | -4 | 6% |
| Tue Sep 1 | 63 | 60 | -3 | 5% |
| Tue Sep 8 | 61 | 60 | -1 | 2% |
| All 8 weeks | 518 | 483 | -35 | 7% |
Weekly totals in each. Error is forecast minus what was used, so a positive number means the model ran high. This window was hidden from the model when it was fit.
Demand forecast
last 180 days and the next 30 actual forecast, 80% and 95% range what the model said during the report card windoweach/day
The model only knows the usage history. If you know something it does not, a coming surge, a new service line, a product being dropped, adjust the forecast and the stock math follows.
Projected on hand
Projected on hand, each: today's stock plus open orders on their expected dates, minus the forecast, day by day.
Vendors and prices, last 90 days
| Vendor | Part number | Vendor description | Sells by | Paid per each | Invoices | 90-day spend | Pairing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meridian Medical Supply | MMS-959443 | ET TUBE CUFF 7.5 MM BX/10 | BX of 10 | $2.54 | 12 | $1,549 | AI 0.76 |
| Northwind Health Distribution | NW1361090 | Endotracheal Tube, Cuffed, 7.5 mm - 10/Bx | BX of 10 | $2.59 | 13 | $724 | AI 0.88 |